Browsing: Africa

Uganda Bureau of Statistics has indicated that the country’s inflation has for the first time since 2012 hit double digits, rising to 10 per cent in September 2022 from 2.7 per cent in January 2022 and 4.9 per cent in April 2022.

It is said that inflation above an annual average of 5 per cent retards economic growth and derails economic development.

According to an article titled Uganda grapples with soaring inflation amid persistent global uncertainties, the rise in inflation has been brought about by issues such as tightening of global financial conditions, which triggered investors’ exit from the domestic debt market, thus stoking depreciation pressures on the Uganda Shilling; the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which disrupted global production and supply chains; extended drought in some regions of the country; and increased global commodity prices.

AfCFTA’s successful implementation can boost trade and promote Africa’s economic recovery and growth. The AfCFTA is the world’s most extensive free trade area in terms of size and number of nations, with a combined GDP of around $3.4 trillion.
Increased integration would improve incomes, generate employment, stimulate investment, and make establishing regional supply chains easier. In comparison to Africa’s external trade, intra-African trade remains tiny. In 2020, just 18 per cent of exports went to other African nations.

For Africa, energy security should come first due to the fact that the continent is the least polluter but it bears a disproportionate burden wrought on by climate change impacts. From 1850-2020, according to analysts, Africa’s global emissions contribution have remained below 3 per cent. However, the continent lost about 5– 15 per cent of GDP per capita growth annually from 1986 – 2015. 

With the aggressive shift to clean energy, Africa risks even worse human and economic crises due to the multipronged dangers of climate change and the possible displacements caused by mining activities. 

Already, climate change-related catastrophes have triggered internal displacement of 2.6 million people going by 2021 estimates. Violence and displacement are some outcomes of climate-related disasters which leaves millions facing acute food shortages and increasing vulnerability. If mining in the DR Congo, and Africa at large, continues as it has for decades, then the displacements, hunger and violence ca only exacerbate. 

What globalists call clean energy is oblivious to what the cost is to Africa which is the source of all the materials needed for this clean energy shift. 

COP27 outcomes were far and few for Africa, yet the UN announced an Executive Action Plan for the Early Warning for All initiative, which calls for initial new targeted investments of US$3.1 billion between 2023 and 2027, which is equivalent to a cost of just 50 cents per person per year.  

This warning system comes to address crucial issues of extreme weather conditions such as disaster risk knowledge, observations and forecasting, preparedness and response, and communication of early warnings.

A couple of the notable outcomes for Africa included the continent’s rainforest giant, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) collaboration with Brazil and Indonesia, to launch a partnership to cooperate on forest preservation after a decade of on-off talks on a trilateral alliance.

In terms of the fiscus, South Africa expects to run a deficit of -4.1 per cent in 2023, however, the deficit is expected to narrow for the next 3 years closing 2026 at -3.6 per cent. This demonstrates significant fiscal consolidation.

Over the next 3 years the South African government expects to consolidate its public finances and reduce its deficit by inter alia increasing revenues and or managing or containing costs. According to Investec, “The current fiscal year (2022/23) has seen a substantial boost to nominal (actual) GDP due to high inflation, which has eased both the fiscal debt and deficit projections as a per cent of GDP, although does not boost real GDP, which is the measure of the country’s growth and has the distorting effect of inflation removed.”

Among countries in Africa, South Africa is getting its public financial act together. The country is paying down its debts, inflation has been showing a strong downward trajectory. What remains to be seen is whether this decreasing inflation rate will continue.